Play the Diamondbacks, who go for the three-game sweep in San Diego in an afternoon affair at Petco Park.
The pitching matchup aside, you’ve got two ballclubs heading in completely opposite directions here. Arizona, which has won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-6, has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Padres, by comparison, have lost nine of their last 12.
Now, I know that San Diego is sending ace Jake Peavy to the mound, while the Dbacks are going with rookie Yusmeiro Petit. But Petit’s last three starts (1-1, 3.78 ERA) have been just as good as Peavy last three (1-2, 3.79).
What’s more, the Padres are just 2-4 in Peavy’s last six starts, and that includes – get this – four straight losses at home, all as huge favorites of -215, -160, -240 and -125. For the season, Peavy is just 5-5 with a 3.36 ERA at Petco, again, always taking the mound as a huge favorite.
Bottom line: Looking at the numbers, not to mention the fact the Padres hadn’t hit a lick in this series before the 9th inning last night, I can’t see how the oddsmakers can justify this kind of price with San Diego. So Arizona, which is 3-2 the last five times it has faced Peavy, is definitely worth a shot here.